Two days were spent in the colloquium of speculators.
A symposium was held at the Méridien Étoile near Porte Maillot, Paris, on January 26 and 27 under the name “Paris Grain Conference”. The initiative was backed by Crédit Agricole and eight lesser-known companies in green business. Discussions were held in English. The French participants were provided with helmets provided by the organizers and benefited from translation. A presentation document before this “Paris Grains Conference” stated that “2022 will be marked by major global upheavals at the geopolitical and economic levels. The impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has been felt in financial, energy, fertilizer and agricultural markets (…) Focusing on the themes of growth and opportunity, this 2023 conference program offers an in-depth analysis of developments shaping international grains. and oilseed markets. Don’t miss the opportunity to come and interact directly with the key players in the sector and benefit from their ideas and connect with them,” the invitation sent to journalists reads. Each round table was presented by Michel Portier, Managing Director of Agritel. This firm claims to envision its mission as follows: “To bring its know-how to all upstream and downstream operators of the agricultural and agro-industrial sectors, including agricultural partners.” Among the speakers was the president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, Mykola Gorbachev. He participated in the round table held on January 26 under the following title: “What fundamental changes have grain trade undergone as a result of the conflict and how do global buyers manage grain supply in this context?” “.
Towards a sharp decline in grain production in Ukraine
Nikolay Gorbachev explained that despite the negotiated Black Sea Corridor, Ukraine’s grain exports are being disrupted, as an increasing share of exports is now carried out by rail, and the differences between rails in Ukraine and importing countries of the European Union are not the same. Also, due to the war, Ukraine will have planted only 3.5 million hectares of winter grains last fall ahead of the 2023 harvest, compared to 7 million hectares in 2022. He also confirmed that some corn and sunflower crops cannot be transported in autumn. 2022 due to war. All speakers before and after the Ukrainian speaker mentioned the uncertainty of the markets for 2023, leading to speculative prices during the risk of shortages. However, some speakers indicated that if Russia did not export large volumes of wheat in 2022, these shortages would already exist. Others have shown that Russia is also exporting more coal and gas to other regions of the world than in 2022. The European Union has decided to reduce the import of these two energies from Russia.
Soy met the diester and food binary market
Regarding soybeans, a Brazilian speaker explained that outlets in the diester sector, a replacement fuel for diesel in diesel engines, are growing dramatically. He also explained that the development of this renewable energy is hampered globally by the fact that livestock feed does not offer enough outlets for soybean meal, a co-product of distillation, despite the large volumes imported by EU member states. According to this speaker, all over the world we need to find more places to eat by raising more birds, pigs, and fish in fisheries. In order for soybean diester to be profitable in the long term, it is important to increase the market for food. This will lead to more deforestation and more meat consumption, which is unlikely to reduce CO2 emissions. During the six roundtables, all interventions involved growing crops to produce fuel in addition to food, but also to produce crops. gas that can be converted to electricity by methanizing livestock waste. However, to make this practice profitable, many plants are added to the slurry pits to increase fermentation, which allows gas production to accelerate. This round table was presented as an opportunity to bring additional income to farmers. But the speakers never touched on the distortions we already see in Germany. In this country, corn plants that fall into manure pits without passing through cows’ stomachs have doubled in the last ten years. This doubling has led to a doubling of the selling price of agricultural land in the same period, which may increase the cost of food products.
An early morning dispatch from AFP due on January 27th
Agence France Presse (AFP) published a dispatch at 1:06 a.m. and 57 seconds into the second day of talks in Paris on January 27, expressing the concerns of Brazilian researchers and Americans. Here are some quotes: “More than a third of the Amazon rainforest could be lost to human activity and drought, according to a scientific study published Thursday in the journal Science, prompting calls for legislation to protect this vital ecosystem at risk. Researchers from Brazil’s Universidage Estadual de Campinas said the damage to the forest, which spans nine countries, was far greater than previously observed. In this study, they analyzed the consequences of fires, logging, drought, and changes in forest edge habitats, which they call spillover effects. Excluding drought, these events destroyed at least 5.5% of the remaining forests that make up the Amazon ecosystem, or 264,748 square kilometers, between 2001 and 2018, according to the study. When the effects of drought are taken into account, the degraded area is 2.5 million square kilometers, or 38% of the remaining forests that make up the Amazon ecosystem. Extreme drought is becoming more common in the Amazon due to changes in land use patterns and human-caused climate change, which affects tree death, the number of fires, and carbon emissions into the atmosphere. These questions were never touched upon during the two-day discussions within the Paris Grain Conference.