Fighting global warming secures a world where UN reports predict an unprecedented drought between 2025/2030, with a shortage of fresh water and therefore a food crisis. In principle, if we fail to transition to a low-carbon world, the overall integrity of the global economy will be at risk, because the global climate is a vast, interconnected system. However, with the tension in Ukraine and the energy crisis, many countries are using fossil fuels massively, and peace in this region is an essential condition for calmly dealing with the strategic issue of global warming and therefore the irreversible energy transition that will change energy power. and the global economy between 2025/2030/2040.
Any movement in a certain region of the Earth affects the rest of the world, where our planet has warmed by an average of 1.1 ° C since 1850. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ongoing global warming could reach 1.5°C to 4.4°C by 2100. IPCC experts note that global warming should be kept to a maximum of +1.5°C. 2100 to prevent our climate from racing.This limit will be unattainable without immediate, rapid and massive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
First, the observation for sea level rise is the average increase in temperature that causes melting of continental ice (glaciers, icebergs, etc.). The volume of the melted ice is added to the volume of the ocean, which causes the sea level to rise. Between 1901 and 2020, the average rate of sea level rise is accelerating, about 1.3 mm per year between 1901 and 1971, about 1.9 mm per year between 1971 and 2006, and about 1.9 mm per year between 2006 and 2020 reaching about 3.7 mm. The IPCC estimates that sea levels could rise by 1.1m by 2100. As a result, coastal areas will experience more frequent and more severe low-elevation flooding and increased coastal erosion.
Second, modification of the oceans, which naturally absorb carbon dioxide in the oceans, acidifies the underwater environment. Excessive acidification of seawater can lead to the extinction of certain species, especially plants and animals such as oysters or corals. In addition to their acidification, human activity causes other changes in the oceans: a decrease in the amount of oxygen, warming and an increase in the frequency of marine heat waves. These changes affect marine ecosystems and the populations that depend on them.
Third, the intensification of extreme weather events leads to water evaporation, which changes the rainfall pattern. This brings more intense rains with floods in some areas and more intense and frequent droughts in many others. Indeed, during heavy rains, the soil cannot fix water. It then flows directly into waterways instead of seeping off. Global warming leads to other disturbances such as disruption of seasons and displacement of air masses, which in the long term may increase the number of extreme climate events: storms, hurricanes, cyclones, floods, heat waves, droughts, fires.
Fourth, global warming is a threat to plants and animals, because the growth periods of wild and cultivated plants are changed: late frosts, early fruits, late leaf fall, etc. Many species will not support the new climate and agriculture will have to adapt by selecting early species. The behavior of many animal species will have to move or adapt quickly to this climate change, under threat of extinction. A warming of 1°C already forces some species to move several hundreds of km North or several tens of meters in altitude to restore their habitat.
Fifth, the effect of global warming disrupts people’s living conditions. Some of these impacts are irreversible, they have pushed ecosystems beyond their adaptive capacity. Today, according to the IPCC report, about 3.3-3.6 billion people live in habitats that are highly vulnerable to climate change. If the sea level rises by 1.1 m by 2100, more than 100 million people will have to change their habitat. and some coastal land will no longer be arable.
Due to rising waters, famines and even storms, many people will be forced to leave their homes or countries to adapt to climate change: due to all these disasters, about 220 million climate migrants are expected between now and 2050. In addition, climate change increases health risks: heat waves, cyclones, floods, droughts, facilitate the spread of diseases. Sixth, climate change disrupts the distribution of natural resources, their quantity and quality. In addition, agricultural productivity and fishing activities are affected. Agricultural productivity may decline by about 2% every 10 years in the 21st century, with annual fluctuations. This leads to food insecurity (increased food prices, supply difficulties, etc.) and tensions around resources. Seventh, cost implications. Thus, the IEA could achieve only 20% of the required emissions reductions by 2030 with current government commitments. Meeting the targets will require annual investments of up to $4 trillion over the next decade, most of which will go to developing economies. More extensive calculations are made to determine the amount of investment required for the long term. For example, Morgan Stanley predicts it will take $50 trillion to transform what the banking group describes as five key industries: renewable energy, electric vehicles, hydrogen, carbon capture/storage and biofuels.
Scarcity of water resources
According to reinsurer Swiss Re, an insurer of insurers, this will require $270,000 billion by 2050, and the goals of the Paris agreement can only be achieved in 2069, 20 years behind schedule, by relying on energy efficiency in the first phase. space in energy transport, Btph, industry, health and agriculture and a new type of tourism without counting the costs for recreation. requires reform of the global financial system, as green bonds represent only 2% of the value of the global bond market in 2021. Without a change in trajectory, Nges projections, based on the simple implementation of current policies, imply output losses of about 5% of global GDP by 2050, and up to 13% by 2100. The European Commission, meanwhile, is talking about an investment of 3,500 billion euros (25% of GDP) over the next ten years, while Tsinghua University predicts that China’s plan will cost around $21.6 trillion over the next four decades, which is roughly 25% of GDP. is 122% of
What about the policy of Algeria, a semi-arid country, against the effects of global warming, with water shortages and a food crisis that could lead to wars in different parts of the world? The Albian aquifer is the largest underground aquifer in the world, about 50,000 billion cubic meters, and covers three countries, Algeria, Libya and Tunisia. 70% of the water level is located in Algeria in the south-east of the country.
Algeria has adopted an ambitious plan against global warming, as it has faced a temperature increase of 0.3°C per decade over the last century, as well as a 15% rainfall deficit, and has prioritized an ambitious program on seawater. desalination plants. This is because the main impacts of climate change are the scarcity of water resources, deterioration of water quality, intrusion of aquifers and deterioration of infrastructure mainly caused by floods. Algeria is committed to combating climate change, having ratified the Paris climate agreement (COP21) in 2015.
Long before that, in June 1992, Algeria signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and ratified it in June 1993, participating in the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP25). It will be held in Madrid on December 12 and 13, 2019.
The work carried out in the field of gas flaring made it possible to reduce burning gases by 500 million m3 during 2020-2021. National oil and gas group, Sonatrach the Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative was launched in 2015 by the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the President of the World Bank Group and aims to end routine gas flaring by 2030. deploy the National Climate Plan 2020-2030, which includes 155 projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, adapt to the adverse effects of climate change, and support governance.
For the developing countries, who strive for the prosperity of the adaptation strategies with the help of the new techniques of the developed countries, they must adapt to the progressive strategy in order not to slow down their development, which can tolerate the minimum. If Africa, Asia, including China and India with more than 4 billion of their 8 billion people, had the same energy consumption pattern as Europe and the United States, which monopolize more than 40% of World GDP in 2022. 100,000 billion dollars for a population of less than a billion. The world has been experiencing uneven upheavals for centuries, torrential rains and floods on the one hand, and droughts and fires on the other. However, this represents a huge cost and a threat to the future of humanity that no single state can handle, hence the urgency of collective action.
*University professor, international expert, doctor of state sciences 1974- Research director of the Ministry of Industry and Energy 1974/1979-1990/1995-2000/2006-2013/2015 – President
5+5+ Germany’s energy transition commission in June 2019